By Tim Marshall.

JAPAN/DEFENCE – The LDP party of Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo Abe has drafted a change to Article 9 of the constitution which bans the use of war as a means of settling international disputes. The change, if passed by parliament, and a national referendum, would recognize the ‘right of self defence’, a term which can have a loose definition. The constitution has never been altered since its inception in 1946.

ISREAL/PALESTINE – An  Israeli court has jailed 2 Jewish teenagers, one for life and the other for 21 years, for the murder of a Palestinian teenager in Jerusalem in 2014. The crime was part of a series of events leading to the Gaza war that year. The 2, unnamed because of their age, kidknapped, beat, strangled, and burned 16-year-old Mohammed Abu Khudair. They said it was revenge for the killing of three Israeli youths by Hamas a few days earlier.

TURKEY/ISIS – IS fighters in Syria have fired across the border at Turkish soldiers engaged in mine clearing. The soldiers returned fire but have suspended the mine clearing work. The incident will add more pressure for the Turkish military to cross the border in force.

RUSSIA/SYRIA – Russia has sent several more advanced Su-35 fighter jets to Syria. The Defence Ministry did not say how many, local media say the number is 4

RUSSIA/EGYPT – Egypt will buy 4 Russian made Sukhoi passenger jets and may order another 6. There is also the possibility of a joint venture to fly Russian tourists to Egypt. Moscow halted all such flights last year after a terrorist bomb brought down one of its aircraft over Sinai. Russia/Egypt relations continue to improve.

AFGHANISTAN/TALIBAN – The Afghan government’s chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah says he expects peace talks with the Taliban to begin within 6 months.
IRAN/COMBAT DEATHS – Another 12 Iranian soldiers have been killed in Syria already this month according to various Iranian media outlets. One of the dead was named as Revolutionary Guard brigadier general Mohsen Ghajarian who was killed near Aleppo where there has been heavy fighting recently.

IRAN/RAFSANJANI –  The former Iranian President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is being fiercely criticized by regime hardliners after he challenged the powerful Guardian Council’s right to vet electoral candidates. Several senior figures have verbally attacked him and the Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper published an article saying he had “officially questioned the structure of the Islamic Republic.”  About half of 12,000 candidates who registered to stand for parliament were disqualified.

USA/PHILIPPINES – The increasingly close military co-operation between the two countries seems to be advancing. The U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg says his country is open to the idea of the two conducting joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. Both countries are keen to ensure that there is “freedom of navigation” in the contested waters and believe that China is trying to restrict free passage.

RUSSIA/KURDS – Russia continued to keep up the pressure on Turkey by allowing a Kurdish group with ties to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party to open an office in Moscow. The move will also increase pressure for DUP representation if the failed Geneva Syrian peace talks resume.

US/SYRIA – A senior American military man has admitted publicly what everyone has known for months, that the U.S.-backed rebel forces are unlikely to defeat Assad’s forces in the near future. The head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Col. Vincent Stewart made the remarks to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

CANADA/SYRIA –  Canada will end its combat role in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State by Feb 22^nd. The move has been approved by the new Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau despite pressure from allies. Canada will remove its 6 jets from the region but keep 2 surveillance planes there.

IRAN/SYRIA – At least another 8 Iranians have been killed in fighting in Syria according to various Iranian media outlets. 5 were from the Revolutionary Guard. Well over 50 Iranians have been killed in Syria this year so far.

IRAN/ELECTION – Iran’s Guardian Council has upheld the disqualification of Hassan Khomeini from standing in the elections for the influential Assembly of Experts. Khomeini is the grandson of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini Iran’s first Supreme Leader.

S KOREA/N KOREA – South Korea is halting work and co-operation at the Kaesong joint industrial complex on the border with North Korea following the Norths recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch.

 CUBA/POLITICS – Caracol Media reports that 84 year old President Raul Castro intends to stand down from the Presidency due to his age.

YEMEN/SAUDI – Saudi-backed forces loyal to Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi have taken control of the western and southern approaches to the 3^rd largest city –Taiz. They are also now maneuvering ahead of an assulat on the capital, Sanaa which is held by the Houthis

CHINA/SOUTH CHINA SEA – China’s artificial island building will allow it to project ‘substantial offensive military power’ within months according to the U.S. national intelligence director James Clapper. Mr Clapper claimed the construction of the islands will enable China to take far more than just defensive military action from them.

RUSSIA/IRAN – Russian media says Moscow will ship the first delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Iran within 6 months.

EGYPT/ISIS – The Islamic State is pushing the Egyptian army out of areas in the north of Sinai according to the Stratfor website. Its source says the army now avoids deploying tanks and armed vehicles to the area because of rocket propelled grenade attacks.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE – Attacks by Palestinians against Israelis increased during the recent visit of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel. Mr Biden criticized the Palestinian leadership for failing to condemn the attacks, and for inciting violence.  After one attack in which an American tourist was murdered in Jaffa, 9 other people wounded, and the attacker shot dead, the official Palestinian Authority TV news described it as a ‘stabbing operation ‘and said ”In Jaffa, a young man was martyred by the bullets of the occupation police. This happened in the Jaffa Port area. The occupation police said that he had carried out a stabbing attack in the area”

ANGOLA/PRESIDENT – President Jose Eduardo dos Santos says he’ll stand down in 2018. This is remarkable news from a man who has been President for 37 years. We have only 2 years to wait to see if happens.

THE WEEK AHEAD –

WATCH –  If the Syrian peace talks do begin again watch to see if the ‘federalism’ begins to be bandied about, and if so, the stance of the opposition groups.  Any details emerging about the death of Mihail Lesin in Washington D.C. will be worth noting . The former advisor to Putin did not die of a heart attack as at first said, but of ‘blunt force injuries to the head, neck and upper and lower torso.’ Another Litvinenko but this time in the USA?  What will be the scale, if any, of the drop in support for Angela Merkel’s CDU Party, and rise in support for Alternative for Germany in the regional election results?

March 16 –  European Commission unveils proposal to reform the Dublin Agreement (III) , which allows asylum seekers to be deported to the EU country in which they first arrived and stipulates they must be first registered there.

March 16 – End of China’s annual National People’s Congress.

March 17-18 – The European Council meets.  The proposed deal with Turkey regarding refugees tops the agenda.

U.S President Barack Obama has defended his 2013 decision not to intervene militarily in Syria’s civil war in his interview in the Atlantic.

He has blamed everyone except himself. His list of scapegoats included UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Pakistan.

Obama said that he was “very proud” of his decision not to take military action and breaking with conventional foreign policy wisdom, something he called the “Washington playbook.”

In the interview, Obama stood firmly by his decision to avoid ordering a strike against  Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapon infrastructure despite having declared the previous year that the use of such weapons would cross a “red line.” Assad used chemical weapons and poisonous gases no less than 35 times according to official sources.

According to Washington sources Obama was afraid action against the Syrian regime would alienate Iran and derail the nuclear talks. A Washington insider said in August last year that President Obama has rendered himself impotent by listening to pro-Tehran advisors.

The decision not to strike stunned U.S. allies and closest advisors. Secretary of State John Kerry told friends he “got f**ked over” according to the article.

Some might argue that Kerry should have resigned. He was left without leverage whilst negotiating with Russia.

Obama also accused Middle East countries particularly Saudi Arabia of being “Free Riders”. In response Prince Turki bin Faisal al Saud former Ambassador to the USA wrote a scathing article in the Asharq Al-awsat this week slamming Obama’s accusations – “We are not “free riders Mr. President… We shared with you our intelligence that prevented deadly terrorist attacks on America.”

“We initiated the meetings that led to the coalition that is fighting ISIS, and we train and fund the Syrian freedom fighters, who fight the biggest terrorist, Bashar Assad and the other terrorists, Al-Nusrah and ISIS. We offered boots on the ground to make that coalition more effective in eliminating the terrorists”.

More bluntly Turki asked whether Obama had “pivoted to Iran so much you equate the kingdom’s 80 years of constant friendship with America to an Iranian leadership that continues to describe America as the biggest enemy, that continues to arm, fund and support sectarian militias in the Arab and Muslim world.”

Interestingly a CNN/ORC Poll early March found that a strong majority, 58%, say Obama has failed in “making the country safer.” 60% say he has failed to “improve America’s image around the world.” Two-thirds of voters say he has failed to “handle ISIS.”

Obama has not solidified a legacy as an effective global statesman. He squandered the opportunities afforded to him over the last eight years to make a real difference.

Arab journalists as far back as 2013 were asking how could such an intelligent President, who won a second term have accomplished so little in international affairs.

In the summer of 2009 his eloquent and idealistic speech to the Arab world at Cairo University elevated expectations for action with clear and principled American leadership. Almost eight years later, to the disappointment of many, the Obama administrations’ Middle East strategy has proven to be short-sighted, incoherent and contradictory.

In the Middle East and even in Europe Obama is perceived as a dithering president. Writing in the Daily Telegraph in January Charles Krauthammer listed some of the most flagrant failures. “In October 2015, Iran test-fired a nuclear capable ballistic missile in violation of Security Council resolutions. Obama did nothing.”

This month Iran’s military tested two ballistic missiles. Again President Obama has not done anything.

The Iranian nuclear agreement, reached last July was hailed by the administration as a landmark deal making the world a safer place. It is supposed to allow U.N. inspectors to press for visits to Iran’s military sites. Iran was allowed self-inspection and declared itself clean.  The Obama administration lifted sanctions, empowered Iran with over $100 billion of frozen funds, and access to world financial markets. This effectively aligned the US against its allies and broader American interests in the region.

In his 2011 speech at Fort Bragg about withdrawal from Iraq Obama said the US would leave behind “a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people.” Events since proved him wrong. Iraq has witnessed sectarian violence, suicide-bombs and mass murder. Ex-Prime Minister Maliki was a disaster, a corrupt bully who implemented divisive policies at the behest of Iran. His sectarianism backfired dramatically in 2014 when the Iraqi military disintegrated as ISIS attacked Mosul. Obama failed to stand up to Maliki. Iran removed him and replaced him with Haider al-Abadi.

Many analysts believe Iran was the winner. The US negotiating team had been the weakest link giving away more and more concessions whilst the Iranian team remained firm. The Iranians were aware that both President Obama and John Kerry were desperate to sign. Last June news leaked that Obama had written letters to Iranian President Rouhani virtually begging him to sign a deal.

The Iranian leaders celebrated by announcing that the world super powers had acknowledged Iran’s right to become a nuclear power. Obama’s pro-Iran advisors told him that such rhetoric was for local consumption.

In Syria the Obama administration had effectively handed the agenda to Putin and Iran. Obama and Kerry are seen by the world as appeasers of Iran and Russia. Obama Betrayed his allies to appease the Mullahs of Iran

IRAN/S-300 – Iran displayed its new Russian S-300 missile defense system during a National Army Day parade in Tehran. This is a serious piece of kit which would come in useful in deterring the possibilities of air strikes against the Islamic Republic unless a foreign  airforce was prepared to lose several jets. The S-300 can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles from over 100 miles away.

IRAN/SYRIA – Another 2 Iranian military fatalities in Syria have been announced in the Iranian media.

SOUTH SUDAN/ETHIOPIA – Fighters from South Sudan have crossed into Ethiopia and killed up to 140 civilians according to Reuters. The attackers are not thought to be South Sudanese government forces. The Ethiopian military chased them back across the border reportedly killing
60 of them.

NATO/POLAND – The American and German defence ministries have both said that NATO will not establish new bases in Poland. This follows requests from Poland for an enhanced presence. Despite not planning extra fixed positions the USA is beefing up its military presence in Eastern Europe.

MACEDONIA/ELECTION – Macedonia will hold an early parliamentary election on June 5^th. The country remains politically and ethnically divided and is struggling to hold back the refugees and migrants on its border with Greece.

NORTH KOREA/NUKES – N Korea is likely to conduct its 5^th  nuclear test in the near future according to S Korean government sources. N Korea is due to hold a Worker’s Party Congress in early May and it may coincide with this.

COMING UP – Netanyahu’s meeting with Putin in Moscow (see diary) is just the latest in a series of one to ones they have held. Israel is nervous about Russia’s ‘friendship’ with Iran and Hezbollah, Russia would prefer Israel not to be so friendly with Ukraine. We rarely get details quickly, but they usually agree something in private which becomes apparent later. It’s not a suprise that Bibi said just last night that Israel will never give back the Golan Heights to Syria. He was signalling to Moscow that the area should not be part of any future peace deal for the Syrian war.

DIARY –

April 18  – EU leaders meet to discuss Libya and the growing numbers of migrants trying to reach Europe from there.

April 20  – After a 2 year break following Russia’s annexation of Crimea the NATO-Russia Council is scheduled to meet in Brussels.

April 20  – UK Secretary of State for Business, Sajid Javid in Iran.

April 21  – Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow.

April 21  – U.S. President Barack Obama in Saudi Arabia.

April 23 – EC President Tusk and German Chancellor Merkel in Turkey to follow up on  the EU-Turkey refugee deal. So far – so mixed. German media will also focus on the comedian insulting Erdogan story.

April 24 –  Serbia – parliamentary elections.

Nehad Ismail argues that  – ‘Saudi Arabia and Turkey must ignore Obama and do the right thing in Syria’

The United States is apparently working on “specific initiatives” to reduce the violence in Syria and sees stopping the bloodshed in Aleppo as a top priority.

Secretary of State John Kerry had made clear the U.S. wanted Russia to apply pressure to the Assad government to get it to stop “indiscriminate aerial attacks” in Aleppo.

However, last weekend Moscow’s foreign ministry told Interfax News that Russia will not ask the Syrian regime to stop the air campaign because the regime is fighting terrorism.  Likewise, Iran continues to pour men and material into Syria to defend Assad.

The Syrian government has called local truces but excluded the main battlefield in Aleppo. What kind of cease-fire is that that allows Russia and the Syrian regime to continue pounding hospitals and schools at will and kill hundreds?  It seems Kerry and Obama are oblivious to the fact that cease fire is a cosmetic exercise and the Geneva talks are a sham. Moscow and Tehran are calling the shots and all that Obama can do is to prevent the right weapons reaching the opposition.

Last month Russia deployed heavy artillery around Aleppo in support of the Assad regime which suggests that a plan was already in place to attack the city.  The Syrian Opposition believes the Russian brokered cease-fire was just another trick to win more time to gain military victories and dictate terms.

During his recent visit to Saudi Arabia President Obama made it clear that he was only interested in fighting ISIS. He pressured Saudi Arabia and Turkey not to provide quality weapons to the opposition.

Without any diplomatic process, the stage seems set for a further escalation.

On 12^th April the Wall Street Journal reported “the Central Intelligence Agency and its regional partners have drawn up plans to supply more-powerful weapons to moderate rebels in Syria fighting the Russia-backed regime in the event the country’s six-week-old truce collapses, according to U.S. and other officials….. The preparations for a so-called Plan B centre on providing vetted rebel units with weapons systems that would help them in directing attacks against Syrian regime aircraft and artillery positions, the officials said”.

However, the opposition has been dismissive about “Plan B” saying it is talk with no substance.  Furthermore President Obama has vetoed the delivery of the right weapons to the rebels by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

In contrast with Putin’s aggressive intervention with air power on behalf of Assad, Obama has been cautious about expanding support to the moderate opposition, much to the chagrin of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and some other U.S. partners in the region.

The CIA’s covert program has grown gradually since it was launched in 2013 with limited supplies of small arms and ammunition. In 2014, the CIA introduced advanced antitank TOW missiles on the battlefield, helping the rebels gain ground on the regime, until Russia’s intervention last year drove the fighters back.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey have increased pressure on Washington to up the ante by calling for the introduction of weapons systems that they know are a red line for Obama, such as Manpads.

It is clear the lame duck president has succumbed to Russia and Iran and will not change his position. It is time for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to ignore him. If Assad, Iran and Russia don’t take whatever John Kerry and Obama say seriously, why should Turkey and Saudi Arabia take any notice of a weak, dithering and impotent president?

They must do the right thing by providing the right weapons to the opposition. Anything else is a fudge and abdication of responsibility.

Nehad Ismail

EURO FOOTBALL/ISIS – German intelligence has warned of ‘indications’ that Islamic State may be planning to target the UEFA European Championship games which begin on June 10.

EURO FOOTBALL/FRANCE – More than 90,000 soldiers, police and civilian security guards will be deployed during the Championships. 51 games are scheduled to be played at 10 stadiums. The tournament lasts 1 month. France is still under a state of emergency following the Paris attacks.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA – 5  Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 4 wounded over the weekend following attacks by pro-Russia rebels in separatist eastern regions. The EU is due to decide on whether to renew sanctions on Russia due to its action in Ukraine.

SYRIA/ISIS – Islamic State forces were hit by air strikes from Turkish and coalition aircraft over the weekend in retaliation for rocket attacks into Turkey’s Kilis province. Nevertheless, ISIS still managed to continue an offensive against rebel forces in the north.

IRAQ/ISIS – 70 ISIS fighters are reported to have been killed in a wave of coalition airstrikes on positions in Fallujah. The ISIS commander in the city, Maher al-Bilawi is said to be among the dead. Iraqi forces hope to retake the city in the next few weeks.

MOSUL/UN – If the operation in Fallujah is successful attention will turn to the much bigger city of Mosul before the end of the year. The UN is warning that more than 50,000 may flee the area in just the buildup operation. More than 4,000 fled in May according to the UN.

VENEZUELA/TALKS – The government and opposition have held secret talks in the Dominican Republic according to the El Nacional newspaper. The report has not been confirmed, but if true, may pave the way for official talks about the crisis in Venezuela and the division of power.

SAUDI/IRAN – Iranian pilgrims will not attend the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Iranian officials blame Saudi Arabia for failing to guarantee the safety of their pilgrims, Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of depriving its citizens of religious duty of attending. In January relations between the two countries were broken after hundreds of Iranians died in a crush at the 2015 Hajjm and the Saudi embassy in Tehran was stormed and set alight the Saudi execution of a Shiite cleric.

COMING UP – The turmoil in France is expected to continue this week as protests continue over controversial labour laws. The Senate will debate the legality of a clause President Hollande used to push the laws through.(See diary) Given that the review will take more than a month, it’s likely the protests will continue to and possibly through the European football championships.

DIARY

May 30 – France hosts meeting of 20 countries to relaunch the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This looks like window dressing, but as ever hope must prevail.

June 1 – A parliamentary commission in the French Senate will begins debate on new labour reform.

June 2 – German parliament votes on a motion to describe the 20th C massacre of Armenians by Ottoman forces as “genocide.”  Turkey will be watching and will be furious if the motion passes.

June 2 – OPEC meets. Oil production is not expected to be curtailed in order to raise prices as the Saudis will not agree.

June 4 – Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega to confirm his presidential candidacy. Again.

June 5 – Parliamentary elections in Macedonia. The country continues to be troubled due partially to the division between its Slav and Albanian populations.

June 5 – Second round of presidential election in Peru.

Nehad Ismail argues that Iran has not, and will not change its behaviour’.

The following are the words of the US Dep National Security advisor Ben Rhodes –  “Iran has not altered its posture on the global stage despite, over a year and a half ago, choosing to alter the nature of its controversial nuclear program… Iran has not ceased its support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah or its threats toward Israel. Iran has continued to test ballistic missiles. From Iraq to Yemen, Iran has continued to engage in destabilizing support for proxy organizations”.

This assertion by a senior White House official confirms what we already know about Iran’s links to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In March the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, revealed that a New York District Court ordered Iran to pay more than $10.5 billion in damages to families of people killed in attacks.  The lawsuit detailed 274 instances of Iran’s alleged role in terror-funding and cooperation with organizations such as al-Qaeda

According to the newspaper, “allegations were built on information collected by military men who conducted interrogations with US detainees on Iranian affiliation with al-Qaeda.”

Iran is the strongest and closest ally of Syria’s President. By extension and association Iran and Assad are colluding with ISIS. It has continued its military and financial support to terrorist groups like Hezbollah and also to the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran has violated U.N. Security Council resolutions banning Iranian missile launches. It conducted a naval missile test in deliberate and dangerous proximity to a U.S. fleet aircraft carrier in the Gulf. It hijacked a U.S. military ship and videotaped the humiliation of its crew. The destabilizing activities can be expected to increase with the lifting of sanctions.

Iran has not moderated its human rights policies. It executed 966 people in 2015, over a 100 were juveniles. Amnesty International’s report on Iran for 2015/2016 details many of the various human rights abuses the country continues to engage in, despite the renewed relationships it has made with the world.

Amnesty’s report says “They blocked Facebook, Twitter and other social media websites, jammed foreign satellite television stations, arrested and imprisoned journalists and suppressed peaceful protests.”

Sentences for those found breaking Iran’s strict penal code include a range of public punishments including flogging, gouging of eyes and amputations.

Since the signing of the deal, Iran has appeared to be more aggressive and less willing to compromise.

Pooya Dayanim, president of the California-based Iranian Jewish Public Affairs Committee, and Reza Parchizadeh, co-chair of Tahlil Rooz, a Persian-language think-tank believe nothing has changed; “Iran is continuing its expansionist policies, growing its military and perfecting its ballistic-missile capabilities — whether anyone in the West likes it or not, or whether its actions are in contravention of the nuclear deal or not”.

Ironically last July whilst the nuclear talks were taking place, and only days before the signing of the nuclear agreement, tens of thousands of protesters in Tehran and cities across Iran were chanting “Death to America” in the Islamic Republic’s annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day of Demonstration. Participants in the demonstrations included President Hasan Rouhani.

Pro-Tehran lobbyists and advisors in Washington told President Obama that this sort of stuff is for local consumption.

Obama’s weakness was starkly reflected in his refusal to take a tough stance against the Assad regime which is Iran’s ally and client. According to Washington sources Obama was afraid any action against the Syrian regime would alienate Iran and derail the nuclear talks.

In a widely read opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in May 2016, the United Arab Emirates’ Ambassador to the United States Yousef al-Otaiba expressed his country’s regret that nearly 12 months after the conclusion of the nuclear framework agreement, Iran not changed its behaviour.

Supporters of the nuclear agreement and the Tehran-funded media and journalists in USA and elsewhere were busy telling us that Iran will change its behaviour. They naively thought the deal will transform Iran into a tolerant liberal state. They argued that Iran’s appalling human rights record will improve. Events on the grounds have shown otherwise.

Potkin Azarmehr who left Iran for the UK after the “Cultural Revolution” and a specialist on Iran told me a few days ago:

“Ever since I remember, successive US administrations, including George W Bush have been trying to change the behaviour of the Iranian regime, the fact is however, the Iranian regime has changed the behaviour of the governments in the West”.

JAPAN/ELECTION – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party has increased its majority in the upper house of the parliament. This strengthens his hand if, as expected, he tries to overturn ‘Article 9’ of the constitution which bans Japanese forces from fighting abroad. That move will probably wait until next year as he will spend the rest of 2016 stablizing ‘Abenomics’ and the Japanese economy.

IRAN/CASUALTIES – The Iranian media says the latest causalties in Syria among Iranian forces are three Afghan fighters. Shia Afghans are known to be fighting in Syria in the Afghan Fatimiyoun Brigade

SOUTH SUDAN/FIGHTING – Unless mediation can bring the fighting to a halt South Sudan appears destined for a return to civil war. Almost 300 people have been killed after rival factions clashed in the capital, Juba. One faction support President Salva Kiir Mayardit, the other is loyal to Vice President Machar.

KASHMIR/VIOLENCE – Over the weekend at least 11 people were killed following demonstrations against the death of the leader of Hizbul Mujahideen – Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. Dozens of police in the Indian controlled state suffered injuries. 3 police stations and 2 government building were burned. 3 officers are missing in Srinagar.

COMING UP

Following three years of proceedings the U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague is scheduled to rule on a case brought against China by the Philippines. China claims that some of its possession in the South China sea upon which it has built ‘islands’ entitles Beijing to the 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone, and 12 miles of sovereign rights around them. If the court rules in favour of the Philippines we can expect to see an American warship sail in or very near to the 12 mile zone in the near future. Will the finance ministers of the Eurozone punish Spain and Portugal for high deficits? If not – they may look weak, if so – what does that do to European unity post Brexit vote? Remember Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? He’s giving a speech on Thursday, which is unusual. He may have an eye on next year’s Presidential election.

DIARY

July 11 – Eurogroup meets in Brussels.
July 11 – African Union summit in Kigali, Rwanda, continues until 18th.
July 11 – Indian PM Modi ends Africa trip with visit to Kenya.
July 12 – U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration rules on Philippines’ case against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.
July 12-13 – EU-China summit in Beijing.
July 13 – NATO-Russia Council meets in Brussels.
July 14 – Bank of England holds first monetary policy meeting since Brexit vote.
July 14 – Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes a speech at a Tehran mosque.
July 15 – Yemeni peace talks resume in Kuwait.

SYRIA/ISIS – Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) now control 40 percent of the IS held city of Manbij. The SDF is a US backed Kurdish/Arab alliance which has been making gains in the city in the last few weeks under cover of airstrikes.

SYRIA/ALEPPO – Dozens of civilians have used the Russian co-ordinated ‘humanitarian corridors’ to leave the city, but the vast majority of the 300,000 people and fighters remain. Aleppo is now almost completely surrounded by pro-government forces.

IRAQ/ISIS – 4 Islamic State fighters have attacked 2 oil facilities in northern Iraq killing at least 5 workers. They managed to temporarily shut down both facilities by setting off explosions before being killed.

IRAN/AL-NUSRA – Iran’s Foreign Ministry is unimpressed with the announcement from Jabhat al Nusra group in Syria that it is breaking ties with Al Qaeda. It issued a statement saying that ‘the terrorist nature of this group has not changed’. Iranian forces are fighting alongside Syrian government troops against Al Nusra in Syria.

NIGERIA/NIGER DELTA – The Nigerian military began exercises over the weekend which appear to be part of preparations for an offensive in the oil rich Niger Delta region. In recent months a group calling itself the ‘Niger Delta Avengers’ has been attacking oil facilities.

TURKEY/CRACKDOWN – The government has freed more than 750 soldiers arrested after the failed coup, however the purge of opposition figures continues. Over 66,000 government workers have been fired and 18,000 people remain in jail. 142 media outlets have been closed and some journalists arrested.

COMING UP

Sometime this week we may see Russia’s response to the USA’s idea of sharing intelligence and targeting information to combat extremist groups in Syria. However, the issue has become even more difficult after Jabhat al Nusra broke with Al Qaeda. This means some rebel groups which the Americans support may fight alongside the group thus complicating the question of which groups are extremist and which should be targeted. Either way, with the Syrian Army and Russians on the offensive in and around Aleppo peace seems as far away as ever.

The Olympics begin on Friday and are a huge security and political challenge for the government. The authorities are concerned about the potential for a terrorist attack and there may be the added complication of antigovernment demonstrations.

Wednesday’s meeting between the foreign ministers of the 5 Central Asian Republics and John Kerry is part of the ongoing diplomatic tug of war between the USA and Russia over influence in the ‘Stans’. However, all parties agree a degree of co-operation is required to combat the rise of extremism in the region.

DIARY

Aug 1 – Deadline for all sides in Syrian conflict to agree to the parameters of political transition. UN will not hold another round of peace talks without this.

Aug 2/4 – Indonesia hosts World Islamic Economic Forum.

Aug 3 – Foreign ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan meet U.S. Sec of State John Kerry in Washington.

Aug 4 – Bank of England decision on benchmark interest rate.

Aug 5 – Olympics begin. Rio de Janeiro. 

A regular round up of headlines and snippets which may have been lost in the deluge of news….

THAILAND/CONSTITUTION – A clear majority of people appear to have voted in favour of accepting a military backed constitution. This opens the way for a general election next year, but future governments can only govern under the military dictated terms of the constitution.

CHINA/ SOUTH CHINA SEA – The Chinese seem to have begun to do what they recently threatened – carry out military patrols in the airspace over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal with a frequency intended to make them ‘routine’. Fighter jets and bombers have made passes through the airspace in recent days despite last month’s ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that Chinese claims to the area were ‘invalid’.

SYRIA/MANJIB – The Syrian Democratic Forces, which are backed by the USA, have wrested control of most of the city of Manbij from ISIS after two months of fighting.  Manjib is strategically important because the area borders Turkey and has been used as a transit point for ISIS fighters and weapons.

IRAN/NUCLEAR – The tensions within the Iranian regime over the nuclear deal with the West were on display again during Friday prayers in the holy city of Mashhad.  The prayer leader there is Ayatollah Alamo ol Hoda, a close supporter of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Hoda mocked President Rouhani calling him ‘Mr Gullible’ for supporting the nuclear deal. Other prayer leaders also criticized Rouhani claiming that sanctions had not been lifted, and that the deal was a victory for the USA. The Supreme Leader’s office is thought to approve the sermons of Friday prayer leaders before they are given.

IRAN/AHMADINEJAD – Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has suggested he will not be running in next year’s Presidential election, but he didn’t rule it out. He told a rally in Yazd province that ‘..it is not expedient now for me to enter politics. I will be in the service of nation when the time comes’. The election is next May.

COMING UP

The most interesting meeting this week is surely that between Presidents Putin and Erdogan. (See Diary). The Turkish leader will enjoy the discomfort his visit to St Petersburg will cause NATO allies, as indeed will the Russian President who will want to gauge how much joint relations have recovered since the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkey last year.  This is Erdogan’s first bi-lateral meeting with a head of Government/State since the failed coup of July 15^th.

DIARY

Aug 8 – Japan’s Emperor Akihito to address the nation following reports he wishes to abdicate within the next few years.

Aug 8 – Presidents of Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan in Baku.

Aug 9 – Brazil’s Senate to rule if there is a legal basis to begin impeachment hearings against former President Dilma Rousseff.

Aug 9 – Turkish President Erdogan in St. Petersburg.

Aug 11 – Zambia holds presidential and parliamentary elections and a constitutional referendum.

Aug 12 – Data on the gross domestic products of the Eurozone, in the second quarter of 2016 released.

Aug 14 – Pakistan. Independence Day.  69th year.  

By Tim Marshall.

JAPAN/DEFENCE – The LDP party of Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo Abe has drafted a change to Article 9 of the constitution which bans the use of war as a means of settling international disputes. The change, if passed by parliament, and a national referendum, would recognize the ‘right of self defence’, a term which can have a loose definition. The constitution has never been altered since its inception in 1946.

ISREAL/PALESTINE – An  Israeli court has jailed 2 Jewish teenagers, one for life and the other for 21 years, for the murder of a Palestinian teenager in Jerusalem in 2014. The crime was part of a series of events leading to the Gaza war that year. The 2, unnamed because of their age, kidknapped, beat, strangled, and burned 16-year-old Mohammed Abu Khudair. They said it was revenge for the killing of three Israeli youths by Hamas a few days earlier.

TURKEY/ISIS – IS fighters in Syria have fired across the border at Turkish soldiers engaged in mine clearing. The soldiers returned fire but have suspended the mine clearing work. The incident will add more pressure for the Turkish military to cross the border in force.

RUSSIA/SYRIA – Russia has sent several more advanced Su-35 fighter jets to Syria. The Defence Ministry did not say how many, local media say the number is 4

RUSSIA/EGYPT – Egypt will buy 4 Russian made Sukhoi passenger jets and may order another 6. There is also the possibility of a joint venture to fly Russian tourists to Egypt. Moscow halted all such flights last year after a terrorist bomb brought down one of its aircraft over Sinai. Russia/Egypt relations continue to improve.

AFGHANISTAN/TALIBAN – The Afghan government’s chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah says he expects peace talks with the Taliban to begin within 6 months.
IRAN/COMBAT DEATHS – Another 12 Iranian soldiers have been killed in Syria already this month according to various Iranian media outlets. One of the dead was named as Revolutionary Guard brigadier general Mohsen Ghajarian who was killed near Aleppo where there has been heavy fighting recently.

IRAN/RAFSANJANI –  The former Iranian President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is being fiercely criticized by regime hardliners after he challenged the powerful Guardian Council’s right to vet electoral candidates. Several senior figures have verbally attacked him and the Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper published an article saying he had “officially questioned the structure of the Islamic Republic.”  About half of 12,000 candidates who registered to stand for parliament were disqualified.

USA/PHILIPPINES – The increasingly close military co-operation between the two countries seems to be advancing. The U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg says his country is open to the idea of the two conducting joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. Both countries are keen to ensure that there is “freedom of navigation” in the contested waters and believe that China is trying to restrict free passage.

GERMANY/MIGRATION – Germany has tightened security on its Swiss border to reduce the flow of  people trying to cross illegally. Last year when the route to Germany from the Middle East via the Balkans became more difficult the flow of migrants switched to the Italian/Swiss route.

IRAN/RUSSIA/SYRIA – The Iranians have confirmed that Iran allowed Russian bombers to use its Hamedan base at the request of the Syrian Government. Other bases may be made available.

TURKEY/ISRAEL – Turkey’s parliament has approved an agreement to normalize relations with Israel.

COMING UP –  A week of summits, talks, and negotiations.

John Kerry has a busy week. The U.S. Sec of State travels to Kenya, Nigeria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and then Switzerland. The Turkey visit will include talks about Ankara’s bid to have Fethullah Gulen extradited from the U.S. The Saudi leg is mostly about Yemen, but with Gulf Cooperation Council officials present he will need to give assurances about support given the recent Russian use of an Iranian air base. The Switzerland trip is focused on Syria.

Today’s meeting between Italy’s Renzi, Germany’s Merkel and France’s Hollande near Naples is to get their positions straight before next month’s EU summit in Slovakia. Migration, terrorism and fiscal flexibility on the agenda.

The impeachment hearings against Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff begin tomorrow and should last all week. Her Workers Party may organize demonstrations to support her.

The foreign ministers of Japan, S Korea and China meet in Tokyo. If they can agree – this could trigger a Heads of Government summit later this year.

DIARY –

Aug 22 – Annual military exercises between the United States and South Korea will begin. N Korea always gets annoyed at this.

Aug 22 – U.S. Sec of State John Kerry in Kenya, then goes to Nigeria and then on to Turkey and then Saudi Arabia.

Aug 22 –  Hollande, Merkel and Renzi meet in Italy

Aug 23/24 – U.S. Dept of Justice officials in Turkey to discuss the extradition of Fethullah Gulen.

Aug  23/24 – Ministers of Japan, China and S Korea meet in Tokyo.

Aug 24 – Ukraine marks 25th anniversary of independence from Soviet Union.

Aug 25 – Last senate vote on impeachment of President Dilma Roussef.

Aug 26/27 – Merkel hosts Heads of Government from Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, Slovenia, Croatia, Austria and Bulgaria.

Aug 26-27 – Russia’s Lavrov and America’s Kerry meet U.N. special envoy for Syria in Geneva.

Aug 27 – Russian military joins the Moldovan Independence Day parade..

Aug 27 – Gabon; Presidential election.

By Tim Marshall.

JAPAN/DEFENCE – The LDP party of Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo Abe has drafted a change to Article 9 of the constitution which bans the use of war as a means of settling international disputes. The change, if passed by parliament, and a national referendum, would recognize the ‘right of self defence’, a term which can have a loose definition. The constitution has never been altered since its inception in 1946.

ISREAL/PALESTINE – An  Israeli court has jailed 2 Jewish teenagers, one for life and the other for 21 years, for the murder of a Palestinian teenager in Jerusalem in 2014. The crime was part of a series of events leading to the Gaza war that year. The 2, unnamed because of their age, kidknapped, beat, strangled, and burned 16-year-old Mohammed Abu Khudair. They said it was revenge for the killing of three Israeli youths by Hamas a few days earlier.

TURKEY/ISIS – IS fighters in Syria have fired across the border at Turkish soldiers engaged in mine clearing. The soldiers returned fire but have suspended the mine clearing work. The incident will add more pressure for the Turkish military to cross the border in force.

RUSSIA/SYRIA – Russia has sent several more advanced Su-35 fighter jets to Syria. The Defence Ministry did not say how many, local media say the number is 4

RUSSIA/EGYPT – Egypt will buy 4 Russian made Sukhoi passenger jets and may order another 6. There is also the possibility of a joint venture to fly Russian tourists to Egypt. Moscow halted all such flights last year after a terrorist bomb brought down one of its aircraft over Sinai. Russia/Egypt relations continue to improve.

AFGHANISTAN/TALIBAN – The Afghan government’s chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah says he expects peace talks with the Taliban to begin within 6 months.
IRAN/COMBAT DEATHS – Another 12 Iranian soldiers have been killed in Syria already this month according to various Iranian media outlets. One of the dead was named as Revolutionary Guard brigadier general Mohsen Ghajarian who was killed near Aleppo where there has been heavy fighting recently.

IRAN/RAFSANJANI –  The former Iranian President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is being fiercely criticized by regime hardliners after he challenged the powerful Guardian Council’s right to vet electoral candidates. Several senior figures have verbally attacked him and the Vatan-e Emrooz newspaper published an article saying he had “officially questioned the structure of the Islamic Republic.”  About half of 12,000 candidates who registered to stand for parliament were disqualified.

USA/PHILIPPINES – The increasingly close military co-operation between the two countries seems to be advancing. The U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg says his country is open to the idea of the two conducting joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. Both countries are keen to ensure that there is “freedom of navigation” in the contested waters and believe that China is trying to restrict free passage.

This summer  the Wall Street Journal broke  news of a secret transfer of $400 million in foreign currency via an unmarked cargo plane to Iran back in January.  Subsequently the White House had been forced to repeatedly deny having paid what was a ransom to Iran for the release of American hostages.

Iran has aired a documentary containing footage of pallets of millions in foreign currency that the video claims was part of the “expensive price” the Obama administration paid to free four U.S. hostages in January.

Obama has broken all the rules to appease the Ayatollahs. His administration has misled the public to spin the apparent $1.7 billion ransom payment to Iran.

Republicans believe that President Obama’s disastrous nuclear deal with Iran was sweetened with an illicit ransom payment and billions of dollars for the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism,”. So, why Iran is still unhappy with Obama?

Iran has violated U.N. Security Council resolutions banning Iranian missile launches. It conducted a naval missile test in dangerous proximity to a U.S. fleet aircraft carrier in the Gulf. It hijacked a U.S. military ship and videotaped the humiliation of its crew.

More recently an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile ship and three fast-attack crafts demonstrated aggressive behavior in the vicinity of a US ship.

And yet, despite the partial lifting of sanctions, the release of billions of dollars and the granting of nuclear exemptions, the Ayatollahs of Iran are not happy.

The nuclear deal hasn’t delivered the benefits Iran was hoping to receive. Its ambition to be a global heavy weight and the sole major regional player has not materialised. Others, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt are still calling the shots.

The leadership thought the signing of the nuclear accord would mark a new phase in its relations.

However, despite all the hard work of the Tehran funded lobbies in Washington, the pro-Tehran advisers in the White House, and the millions of dollars spent on PR and favourable press reporting, Iran is still not enjoying the fruits of the nuclear deal. Most banks remain reluctant to deal with Iran. American banks are not open for business with Iran.

Washington is fully aware that Iran, like its friends in Damascus, are the biggest sponsors of terrorism and abusers of human rights.  It is bogged down in Iraq and Syria. Its military has failed to defeat the anti-Assad opposition despite Russian involvement.

Tehran’s relations with Russia are strained. Russia embarrassed Tehran by telling the world that Iran allowed its air-force to use bases in Iran to attack targets in Syria.

Iran has not moderated its human rights policies. It executed 966 people in 2015, over 100 were juveniles. Amnesty International’s report for 2015/2016 says “They blocked Facebook, Twitter and other social media websites, jammed foreign satellite television stations, arrested and imprisoned journalists and suppressed peaceful protests.”

An important report issued by the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, D.C. arms-control think tank, revealed that Iran was secretly granted exemptions to the July 2015 nuclear agreement so it could meet requirements for what the agreement calls “Implementation Day” — when Iran was to receive an estimated $150 billion in sanctions relief.

Not coincidentally, the same day that Implementation Day was announced (January 18), U.S. officials announced a swap of 18 Iranian prisoners held by the United States for five U.S. citizens who had been illegally held by Iran. An additional 14 Iranians were removed from an INTERPOL wanted list. (A London based Iranian opposition figure told me that the 18 Iranian prisoners refused to go back to Iran).

The Institute report cites an unnamed official who said that without these exemptions, some of Iran’s nuclear facilities would not have been in compliance with the JCPOA by Implementation Day.

Some of the exemptions were significant and allowed Iran to not report activities with nuclear weapons-related applications. One of the exemptions allowed Iran to violate a cap of 300 kg for its enriched-uranium stockpile under certain circumstances.

As the West is trying hard to renew business relations with Iran, the regime continues to oppress its citizens and deny their basic human rights. The regime hopes that the promise of business deals will blind the world to Iran’s crimes against its own people.

SYRIA/CEASEFIRE –  The Free Syrian Army says its does not expect the Syrian Government forces or the Russian military will abide by the ceasefire due to begin tonight.

GREECE/MIGRATION – The EU will provide an additional $129 million to help fund organizations assisting migrants and refugees in Greece with schooling, food, heating and housing for children. About 60,000 are trapped in Greece.

TURKEY/EU – The EU appears to be softening its stance on Turkey and is trying to find ways to allow Turks visa free travel to the Schengen area. Turkey wants the issue sorted by the end of October, the EU still has concerns about human rights issues, nevertheless the noises coming out of Brussels suggests the EU may compromise.

TURKEY/MEDIA – The government has detained journalist Ahmet Altan (above right) and his brother, the academic Mehmet Altan (above left), for questioning after comments they made before the failed July 15 coup. Altan joins more than 100 media workers who have been detained since the coup.

UZBEKISTAN/NEUTRALITY – The acting Uzbek President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, says his country will maintain its post-cold war stance of non-alignment.

IRAN/SAUDI – Iran’s ‘Friday Prayer Leader’ Ayatollah Ahmad Alam ol Hoda has said that Saudi Arabia caused “all the problems in the region” during a sermon delivered in Qom. Numerous anti Saudi protests were held across the country on Friday. This follows remarks last week by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei questioning the authority of Saudi Arabia to oversee the annual Hajj pilgrimage.

COMING UP

Another interesting week on the EU front. Jean Claude Juncker’s ‘state of the union’ speech on Wednesday is worth watching. Then on Friday the EU heads of Government/State (minus UK) meet in Bratislava. The differences between the north, south, and central Europeans may surface publicly.

Russia hold parliamentary elections on Sunday. President Putin’s United Russia is hemorrhaging support so how the result is managed will be interesting.

DIARY

Sep 12 – Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visits India.

Sep 13 – U.N. General Assembly opens. New York City

Sep 13/18 – Venezuela hosts Non-Aligned Movement Summit.

Sep 13 – Zambian President Edgar Lunga sworn in.

Sep 14 – Annual pilgrimage to Mecca ends.

Sep 14 – Venezuela. Opposition protests continue.

Sep 14/15 – Burma’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in USA. Sanctions to be lifted/eased?

Sep 14 – European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker delivers State of the Union speech.

Sep 16 – EU informal summit. Bratislava.

Yesterday marked 15 years since Sept. 11, 2001. Since then, the U.S. and other forces have waged almost constant war in the Middle East, the birthplace of Islam and civilization itself. On Sept. 11, we pause and remember where we were that day and what we were thinking. That is altogether appropriate. However, it is also appropriate to consider how the map of the Middle East has changed since 9/11. Maps are useful tools, but they can be dangerous because they lock patterns into your mind that may not be accurate. The only way to counter this is to force yourself to look at things from a different perspective. To do this, we have created two maps of the Middle East: one of the region on Sept. 11, 2001 and another of the region on Sept. 11, 2016.

Osama bin Laden had one great goal in mind for al-Qaida, and it wasn’t simply to kill Americans. For bin Laden, attacks like 9/11 were a means to an end. Bin Laden really sought to transform the Islamic world from within by insurrection. He came from a wealthy Saudi family, and when he looked at this map, he saw sclerotic regimes, indulgent dictators and a society in a general state of collapse. The once-proud heirs of the Prophet Muhammed’s revelation had been turned into pawns in the Cold War and had imbibed foreign ideals – first nationalism, then socialism, then petty authoritarianism. And now they were weak and ignorant of their own traditions, and bin Laden hoped to change this.

Al-Qaida didn’t have the power to do this single handedly. And so al-Qaida attacked the United States, hoping to create a rallying cry in the Muslim world not just against the West but against the Western-sympathizing dictators who had steered the Arab Muslim world to this disastrous place. In total, 2,977 people died on 9/11 – but from al-Qaida’s point of view, 9/11 was initially a failure. The U.S. punished Afghanistan and the Taliban, but Afghanistan was on the periphery of al-Qaida’s fight. Al-Qaida hoped to draw the U.S. into the heart of the Middle East, and at first the U.S. didn’t take the bait.

But 9/11 also showed that bin Laden understood something the U.S. and others did not. And that was that most Middle Eastern states were in fact weak, their borders artificial. The 9/11 attacks may not have immediately set off the chain reaction bin Laden hoped for, but his diagnosis of the situation proved to be accurate. Eventually, the tinder ignited, sparked by the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the U.S. attempt to install a liberal democracy in Baghdad. Since then, because of war, popular unrest (most notably the 2011 so-called Arab Spring), economic frailty and various other dynamics, the map of the Middle East has changed dramatically.

This is a map of the Middle East on Sept. 11, 2016. The map does not show official political borders. It shows the forces that exert power over certain territory. It is a very different map than the first and represents the realization of at least some of bin Laden’s objectives.

Libya, for instance, is no longer a country. The old Libya was the 16th largest country in the world by area but only had a population of 6 million split between two population centers – Tripoli and Benghazi. The distance between Tripoli and Benghazi is over 600 miles, which is mostly desert. The hinterlands support small populations of various tribal groups and the Tuareg, many of whom now exert control over regions and battle each other for position and territory.

Yemen has fallen apart again, with fresh civil war kicking off in 2014, a few years after Arab Spring protests shook the country. The Saudis and their allies support what is still recognized internationally as Yemen. The Houthis and their supporters have a stronghold in the north. Al-Qaida has found enough space to operate its own little fiefdom in the country, and the Islamic State is there too. It is the perfect example of jihadist groups taking advantage of popular disillusionment with the old order of things.

Lebanon remains as it has been since the 1960s: hopelessly divided and deadlocked. Only now, Hezbollah has become both a political party and a fifth-column military force in the small Levantine country. Hezbollah has in recent years traded the occasional skirmish with Israel for supporting Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Arab Republic, but remains dominant in stretches of land that is for all intents and purposes Hezbollah’s sovereign territory.

Egypt looks relatively stable despite its unrest and the 2013 coup d’état, but Egypt is under significant strain. The economy is in shambles, its military is dealing with an insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula and other jihadist terrorist threats at home, and its 80 million plus people live in an area roughly the size of the state of Kentucky, clustered on either bank of the Nile River.

Jordan is under similar strain – the fact that Jordan has been able to hold together amid the chaos surrounding it is a minor miracle. Almost 20 percent of the people living in Jordan are Syrian refugees.

Syria and Iraq have been destroyed and will not recover, at least not in their previous form. At the heart of this is the Islamic State, a splinter of al-Qaida, which took advantage of both the power vacuum in Iraq after the U.S. invasion and the sectarian rivalries embedded within the region. Bin Laden hoped to begin the process of building a caliphate by overthrowing Middle Eastern dictators. The Islamic State is building that caliphate by conquering territory and ruling it and has thus far met with success beyond what could have been imagined for such a group in 2001.

Syria has splintered into at least three different segments. First is the Islamic State. Second is the small, partially disconnected statelet the Syrian Kurds have carved out for themselves, which they call Rojava, on the Jazira Plain. Third is the remnants of the Syrian Arab Republic led by Assad’s regime – exactly the type of regime Bin Laden hoped al-Qaida would help break apart. Assad’s regime is a shadow of its former self, though it has solidified control over the Alawite coast as well as most of Syria’s major metropolitan areas: Homs, Hama and Damascus.

Iraq has split into at least four different segments. The Islamic State is under severe pressure there but remains a formidable force. Iraq’s Kurds in the north enjoy autonomy through the Kurdistan Regional Government – independence is a fait accompli at this point. Shiite Arab Iraq oscillates between being an Iranian vassal state and attempting to assert its own writ. Sunni Arab Iraqis, with the least physical control over their territory than any other entity on this map, remain something of a wildcard. IS could not have grown into what it is today without them, but that tacit support has waned in the last year.

Sitting atop this chaotic situation are the Middle East’s four regional powers: Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel. This map reveals that these countries face grave challenges and potential opportunities. Turkey must fear spillover from the chaos raging to the south, the result of both Syria’s civil war and the rise of the Islamic State – but that also means Turkey has a chance to reclaim its influence in some of the old Ottoman territories. Iran has to deal with Sunni Arabs, the Islamic State and the Kurds, all claiming land within territory that used to belong to its mortal enemy. These are all threats – but they also present a chance for Iran to gain a base of operations in the heart of the Middle East from which it can project power.

Saudi Arabia, a vast, oil-rich desert whose economy is under severe strain, faces a war on two fronts, and there are limits to the amount of treasure it can use to protect itself. Israel is surrounded by general chaos, but its two most important strategic partnerships – with Egypt and Jordan – remain in place. Israel’s would-be enemies are also too fractured and too busy fighting each other to give Israel a hard time. Despite the unease Israel feels looking at this map, ironically Israel is more secure today than at any other point in its modern history. As for the Palestinians, they have never been more divided, and Israeli military and economic dominance of the Palestinian territories is at this point a simple, if controversial, fact.

Looking at the old map of the Middle East is like traveling back in time. It is an echo of a past long gone. Comparing that old map to the new reveals the thinking of those who live there and gives a sense of the direction in which events have developed since 9/11. It’s not how bin Laden drew it up or planned it, but 15 years after 9/11, the map looks a lot more like he would have wanted, despite a massive expenditure of American (and Russian, French and various other foreign) resources in the region to stop those very developments. Bin Laden had a deep understanding of his part of the world in 2001. Looking at these maps bears that out – and points towards an inexorable conclusion: These new borders will change too, and that will necessitate more new maps

This article originally appeared on Geopoliticalfutures.com and is republished with permission.

YEMEN/SAUDI – Saudi-backed forces loyal to Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi have taken control of the western and southern approaches to the 3^rd largest city –Taiz. They are also now maneuvering ahead of an assulat on the capital, Sanaa which is held by the Houthis

CHINA/SOUTH CHINA SEA – China’s artificial island building will allow it to project ‘substantial offensive military power’ within months according to the U.S. national intelligence director James Clapper. Mr Clapper claimed the construction of the islands will enable China to take far more than just defensive military action from them.

RUSSIA/IRAN – Russian media says Moscow will ship the first delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Iran within 6 months.

EGYPT/ISIS – The Islamic State is pushing the Egyptian army out of areas in the north of Sinai according to the Stratfor website. Its source says the army now avoids deploying tanks and armed vehicles to the area because of rocket propelled grenade attacks.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE – Attacks by Palestinians against Israelis increased during the recent visit of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel. Mr Biden criticized the Palestinian leadership for failing to condemn the attacks, and for inciting violence.  After one attack in which an American tourist was murdered in Jaffa, 9 other people wounded, and the attacker shot dead, the official Palestinian Authority TV news described it as a ‘stabbing operation ‘and said ”In Jaffa, a young man was martyred by the bullets of the occupation police. This happened in the Jaffa Port area. The occupation police said that he had carried out a stabbing attack in the area”

ANGOLA/PRESIDENT – President Jose Eduardo dos Santos says he’ll stand down in 2018. This is remarkable news from a man who has been President for 37 years. We have only 2 years to wait to see if happens.

THE WEEK AHEAD –

WATCH –  If the Syrian peace talks do begin again watch to see if the ‘federalism’ begins to be bandied about, and if so, the stance of the opposition groups.  Any details emerging about the death of Mihail Lesin in Washington D.C. will be worth noting . The former advisor to Putin did not die of a heart attack as at first said, but of ‘blunt force injuries to the head, neck and upper and lower torso.’ Another Litvinenko but this time in the USA?  What will be the scale, if any, of the drop in support for Angela Merkel’s CDU Party, and rise in support for Alternative for Germany in the regional election results?

March 16 –  European Commission unveils proposal to reform the Dublin Agreement (III) , which allows asylum seekers to be deported to the EU country in which they first arrived and stipulates they must be first registered there.

March 16 – End of China’s annual National People’s Congress.

March 17-18 – The European Council meets.  The proposed deal with Turkey regarding refugees tops the agenda.

ISIS/DABIQ – The loss of the small Syrian town of Dabiq, taken by rebel fighters over the weekend, is a huge symbolic blow to the group. The town near the Turkish border has little strategic significance but was used by ISIS for propaganda. It features in apocalyptic prophecies in which Muslims beat the Roman (for which now read the West) heralding the ‘end times’. In recent weeks ISIS has rowed back from previous statements and says this particularly battle is not the one prophesized.

IRAN/YEMEN – The Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, has criticized the U.S. for supporting “Saudi Arabia’s war against Yemen.”

EGYPT/SYRIA – The Egyptian air force has bombed Islamist militants in Sinai. This follows the claim by Islamic State that it was behind the killing of 12 soldiers at a checkpoint in the Sinai.

BURUNDI/ICC – Burundi’s parliament has voted overwhelmingly to withdraw from the International Criminal Court. This follows an ICC opening an investigation after President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term caused demonstrations which were violently suppressed. Hundreds of people have been killed.  The President has to sign off on the Parliament’s decision.

COMING UP

The EU foreign affairs ministers meet today to discuss the sanctions against Russia due to its aggression in Ukraine. There’s a split between those who want more and those who want less. Then the EU heads of state get together on Thursday where the issue will again be towards the top of the agenda. Immigration will also dominate. We may also get a clearer picture of where the EU/Canada trade deal is.

The president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte is in China from tomorrow until Friday. Watch for signals that he is edging, only edging, away from the USA and towards China.

DIARY

Oct 17 – Burma’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, makes 1^st state visit to India.

Oct 17 – EU begins review of third Greek bailout.

Oct 17 – EU foreign affairs ministers meet in Luxembourg. Sanctions against Russia re Syria on agenda.

Oct 18/21 – Philippine President Duterte in China.

Oct 19 – Last of 3 presidential debates before the U.S. Nov 8 election.

Oct 19 – Putin in rescheduled visit to Paris to meet Hollande re Syria/Ukraine.

Oct  20 – 2 parliamentary by-elections  for UK parliament. Witney/Batley and Spen.

Oct 20/21 –  EU heads of Gov/state meet in Brussels for European

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in the spring of 2003, Iraq has been unstable. It will remain that way for years to come irrespective of what happens in Mosul.

The main source of instability is the sectarian struggle inside the country.

The meddling of Iran has made a bad situation much worse. The regional rivalry between Shi’a Iran on one side and the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia and Turkey has contributed to the instability. Unless the three agree to work together to resolve differences, Iraq will continue to be a victim.

The military offensive against ISIS in Mosul is expected to last several weeks.  The indications are that ISIS will eventually be driven out of Mosul and escape to Syria which is considered a safe haven given that neither the Assad regime nor the Russians are interested in fighting them.

The immediate consequences of the Mosul offensive are already making headlines: “Exodus of refugees of cataclysmic proportions”. The possibility of a desperate “ISIS using chemical weapons”. Also stories of WW3 appear in the press. The latter is unlikely for the simple reason that the security of USA and Russia is not threatened by what is happening in Mosul.

The Mosul issue is complicated. There are too many players involved with conflicting agendas. The latest participant to enter the fray is Turkey which has kept a tank battalion in Ba’ashiqa, a nearby town.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly said that Turkish forces will participate in the “liberation” of Mosul. The various actors involved in the fight for Mosul (inc the Kurdish Peshmerga, the Sunni Hashd-al-Watani militia, the Turkish army, the Shia popular mobilization units, the Iraqi Security Forces, and the PKK)  complicate the potential for coordination and subsequent co-operation. Inevitably a conflict of a different kind will follow between the disparate groups fighting ISIS.

Defeating ISIS in Mosul does not automatically mean an end to the violent islamist movements. They will continue to flourish as long as they are fed with hatred of Western civilization. We can defeat them militarily but seemingly cannot eliminate the extremist ideology from the minds of the gullible dupes who joined ISIS since the summer of 2013.

In the Middle East, the media is focusing on a wider anti- Saudi plot by Iran supported by the Obama administration’s decision to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran and lift sanctions. This emboldened Iran to impose its will on the region.

So the main winner will be Iran with hegemony over two of the most important Arab states – Syria and Iraq, while Saudi Arabia and Turkey lick their political wounds and concede political defeat. Iran has so far prevailed in its agenda to strengthen its grip over Iraq and Syria while keeping Turkey and Saudi Arabia out.

Questions remain; how to deal with the various militias loyal to Iraq, Iran, and Kurdistan and so on? Can they be integrated into the political process? Is there a super plan of reconciliation and unification? Will Turkey and Iran play a constructive role in helping to rebuild Mosul and Iraq?

The loss of Mosul was a severe blow to Iraq. But why and how was Mosul occupied so swiftly by ISIS in June 2014? Why did the Iraqi army not fight?  The answer can be found in an article I wrote in the Huffington Post in June 2014 :

In a nut-shell the collapse of the Iraqi army was swift and shocking. The fall of Mosul was catastrophic. No one expected that the army would disintegrate so quickly. Nouri al-Maliki the former Iraqi Prime Minister was blamed. He had purged commanders he suspected of disloyalty, replacing them with officers whose qualifications were not military experience but sectarian affiliations and personal loyalty. The alienation of the Sunni Arab element of Iraqi society, a third of the Iraqi population, has helped anti-government insurgents and made the collection of human intelligence in the Sunni areas extremely difficult.

For Iraq, the battle of Mosul is a testing ground. Reaching a power-sharing agreement between the different forces fighting for Mosul today, and protecting the local Sunni population will be critical for both the outcome of the battle and Iraq’s future.

The next battle for Mosul will be charting its political course after the military operation.  If the various Iraqi players and the regional powers don’t agree, not only is Mosul doomed but so is Iraq itself. The country will be fragment into 3 states; Shi’a, Sunni, and Kurdish. Preventing that is the challenge once ISIS has been run out of town.

Nehad Ismail is Senior Analyst at Wikistrat